Morrison: EU accession is the right strategic goal for Montenegro, but it is not a miracle cure for all the problems the country faces

There is a real possibility that Montenegro could become a member state in 2028, not only because of the solid progress it has made, but also because the European Union, from a geopolitical perspective, has a need to secure the integration of the Western Balkans - said British historian and professor at De Montfort University in Leicester, Dr Kenneth Morrison, in an interview with Portal ETV.

We spoke with Professor Morrison about Montenegro’s progress in European integration and its position within the broader European context, turbulent developments at the global level, as well as his new book „Montenegro and Serbia: A Velvet Divorce?“, which was recently presented to the Montenegrin public and which he co-authored with Boston University professor Vesko Garčević. 

Portal ETV: As someone who has closely followed political developments in Montenegro for many years, how would you assess the performance of the current parliamentary majority? Do you see its heterogeneity at this moment as an advantage or a drawback?

MORISON: Montenegro faces challenges, like any other European country. However, although internal challenges and political crises of varying intensity are constantly present, Montenegro remains one of the most stable countries in the Western Balkans and the only one with realistic prospects of joining the European Union in the coming years. From the perspective of an external observer, I am optimistic about Montenegro’s future, because if we distance ourselves from the often overheated internal political situations and events, the country’s overall direction of travel is more favourable compared to its neighbours.

The heterogeneity of the government is both an advantage and a risk. This government, led by Movement Europe Now (Pokret Evropa sad), is very diverse and difficult to keep together, although it has managed to do so since 2023. The most recent decision by the Democratic People's Party (Demokratska narodna partija) to leave the government and the ruling coalition in Podgorica, over issues such as language, citizenship and state symbols, is nothing particularly new and should be viewed as part of Montenegro’s internal political dynamics, which will remain a permanent factor. Nevertheless, it highlights the difficulties of forming a coalition government composed of parties with quite different political agendas. Governing through coalitions is always demanding, but in the absence of political parties that can independently secure a parliamentary majority, a coalition government remains the only possible path. And while such a model can lead to occasional rifts, it can also encourage better cooperation, compromise and greater transparency - at least in theory.

Portal ETV: How do you assess Montenegro’s progress on its path towards membership in the European Union?

MORISON: It now appears likely that Montenegro will be the next member of the European Union, and the recent closure of a further five negotiating chapters represents an additional positive step in that direction. The only question is when this will happen. The year 2028 seems the most plausible date, but we have found ourselves in similar situations before, with deadlines continually being pushed into the future. This time, however, I believe there is a real possibility that Montenegro could become a member state in 2028, not only because of the solid progress it has made, but also because the European Union, from a geopolitical perspective, has a need to ensure the integration of the Western Balkans. Montenegro’s success in this process would be a strong signal to other countries in the region aspiring to membership that the enlargement policy is still alive.

However, the question remains whether there is genuine readiness among citizens of EU member states for further enlargement at a time when they themselves are facing numerous challenges. Moreover, the European Union that Montenegro may eventually join is significantly different from the one that existed when the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) entered into force in 2010. In the meantime, Brexit has occurred (with the United Kingdom having been one of the stronger advocates of enlargement within the EU), divisions have emerged within the Union over the war in Ukraine, and anti-EU political parties have strengthened in many member states. Accession to the European Union is the right strategic goal for Montenegro, but it will not be a miracle cure for all the problems the country faces.

Portal ETV: You have also extensively researched church-state relations, particularly in the Balkans. How would you define today the relationship between the Church - primarily the Serbian Orthodox Church - and the Montenegrin state?

MORISON: The Serbian Orthodox Church represents a significant factor in Montenegrin social and political life, although the degree of its influence has varied over time. During the 2020 religious processions, it played a clearly expressed role in shaping the political climate that led to the fall of the Democratic Party of Socialists (Demokratska partija socijalista) in August of that year. After the death of Metropolitan Amfilohije and the signing of the Basic Agreement in 2022, its activity in the public sphere became somewhat more restrained, although it is not difficult to observe that the influence of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro has increased in recent years. It is undoubtedly a more visible and assertive institution than it was, for example, two decades ago.

At the same time, the influence of the Montenegrin Orthodox Church (MOC) has weakened, which made it particularly interesting to read this week statements by Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, accusing the Ecumenical Patriarchate and Patriarch Bartholomew of „sowing discord“ within the so-called „Russian Orthodox world“ through cooperation with the governments of the Baltic states, and alleging that the Ecumenical Patriarch is preparing to grant autocephaly to the Montenegrin Orthodox Church as a form of retaliation against the Serbian Orthodox Church. Therefore, although these processes are not always visible in everyday political life, the question of the role of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro, as well as the issue of the autocephaly of the Montenegrin Orthodox Church, remain extremely important and sensitive topics.

Portal ETV: Let us turn briefly to the broader European context. How do you assess the threat that Russia poses to Europe’s stability, and do you see disagreements within NATO itself?

MORISON: We are witnessing a period of pronounced geopolitical turbulence, and what we experienced during the first two weeks of 2026 is enough to make even those inclined to a more relaxed view of such situations feel concerned. The threat of a wider European war is probably more pronounced than at any time since the end of the Second World War. A peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine, despite the efforts of the United States and the European Union, still appears very distant, and Russia has made it clear that it would consider any deployment of European troops in Ukraine to monitor a ceasefire as a hostile act, and that such forces would be legitimate military targets.

Furthermore, the ability of European states to enter into an open conflict with Russia is questionable, particularly given the evident tensions within the transatlantic partnership and the views of the U.S. administration on Europe expressed in the recently published National Security Strategy. In addition, the populations of European countries are not sufficiently prepared for such a scenario, although citizens of Poland and the Baltic states may be more aware of the threat and psychologically more prepared than others.

Although we all hope that a direct, kinetic war will be avoided, we cannot ignore the fact that NATO, and especially its European members, are already engaged in a kind of „shadow war“ or „grey zone“ conflict with Russia, in which cyberattacks, covert operations, espionage, disinformation campaigns, economic pressure and destabilisation activities have become almost routine. There are also serious concerns about the future of NATO, which would be deeply shaken by any U.S. moves regarding Greenland, given that the Alliance has been the cornerstone of European security for almost eight decades.

As for the impact of these processes on Montenegro, it is almost certain that it is not spared, although it is not an exception but part of a broader geopolitical chessboard and a state with a certain geostrategic significance. Accordingly, Montenegro is as vulnerable as other countries, as it cannot remain immune to these global processes. In any case, there are numerous potential flashpoints that could lead to far greater instability, but we must hope that reason will prevail and that a wider, direct war will be avoided. Europe must not, as it did in the summer of 1914, unknowingly step into catastrophe, although the current geopolitical crisis bears more similarities to the 1930s. Still, I hope that the darkest lessons of the conflicts of the 20th century will be taken into account - which is why, as a historian, I cannot stress enough the importance of studying history among younger generations, because, whether we like it or not, we sometimes remain trapped in its patterns.

Portal ETV: Your new book, which you co-authored with Professor Vesko Garčević, „Montenegro and Serbia: A Velvet Divorce?“, was recently presented in Podgorica. Can you tell us more about the book, the period it covers, and the key moments you identify in the turbulent relationship between the two countries?

MORISON: The book that Professor Vesko Garčević and I wrote essentially represents an analysis of how Montenegro and Serbia converged and diverged from the late 1980s onward. We address several key moments - from the „anti-bureaucratic revolution“ and the fall of the Montenegrin League of Communists, the breakup of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the creation of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1992, through the internal divisions within the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) in 1997, to the referendum on Montenegro’s independence in 2006.

A significant part of the book focuses on the (often complex) bilateral relations between Podgorica and Belgrade, the divergence of the two states’ foreign policy approaches since then, with particular attention to the recognition of Kosovo, NATO and EU membership, and relations with countries such as Russia and China. The book also includes an analysis of the role played by the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro. As we approach the marking of two decades since the restoration of Montenegrin independence, we considered it necessary to document the trajectory of this relationship and reflect on the turbulent four decades that have shaped both Montenegro and Serbia.